Weather Report

Discussion of anything, within reason (no politics or religion, please).
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AZ Rail Rat
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Weather Report Unread post

IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD!!! !*00*!

Or is it just Global Warming?

Highs n Phoenix:

Monday: 105(F) - New Record
Tuesday: 110 - New Record
Wednesday: 95 - What's going on?

Thursday: 78 (Cooler than Atlanta Hawk?)
RAINED ALL AFTERNOON
Will get about 1 inch before its over, perhaps more.

Normal rain for ALL of May in Phoenix: 0.2 inches

Been here 22 years (Badge of honor, we say: SURVIVED "22 summers")
Don't EVER remember it raining in May or June.

IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD!!! !*00*!

How's the weather where you are?
Ferroequines UNITE!!!

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Gwizz
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

Sunday Rain off and on snow level 4,000
Monday High 70s
Tuesday. High 80s Snow level 12,000
Wednesday High 70s light rain off and on
Thursday. Low 60s morning light rain

But in Seattle we have an odd weather pattern.
Pouring down rain in the North while sun shining in the South.
West of Seattle a rain shadow causing almost desert conditions
50 miles further to the coast a rain forest with 200+ inches of rain each year.
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wsherrick
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

Here in my neck of the woods it is damp and around 45 degrees. I have a fire going to knock off the chill. Odd isn't it?
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AZ Rail Rat
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

wsherrick wrote:Here in my neck of the woods it is damp and around 45 degrees. I have a fire going to knock off the chill. Odd isn't it?
Even odder: It's 54F now at 8:39pm. For us desert rats, THAT'S COLD!

I'm thinking about firing up the fireplace too! ^**lylgh ^**lylgh ^**lylgh
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proudcanadian
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

Up here, we've had an unusually cold May. We've had a lot of rain, and one day they even called for snow! !*00*! Luckily this didn't happen. Temperatures haven't exceeded 15 degrees Celsius all month. (That's 59 Fahrenheit to you folks south of the border) Typically we get at least one week above 20 celsius, or 68 fahrenheit. We usually have our pool open by the May long weekend (Which was last weekend here in Canada), but by the looks of things, we won't be able to open it until early June. :-(
I don't drive a dogsled to work, I don't live in an igloo, and we're the SECOND LARGEST COUNTRY ON EARTH!!!
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Hawk
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

I've got my AC on but it's not really that hot. Low 80's.

We've had a few storms, with tornadoes, but nothing unusual for this time of year for us rednecks. :mrgreen:
Finally getting a bit of rain to help out our drought. Just enough rain to not make it miserable.

Actually I'd say it's fairly typical weather for us right now. I believe this global warming is being nice to us 'S'uthners' ;-)
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nedfumpkin
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A misconception about global warming is confusion over the term and what it actually means. I keep seeing a particular blogger (million miles from here) who is always making comments about global "warming" whenever a mention about cold weather was in the news. The heat of any particular day is not directly connected to the the warming in global warming. The term actually means the average global temperature, not that it is "hotter."

The result of global warming is extremes in the heat of the day, or the cold in winter, and the volatility of the weather itself. But hell, it's just weather. But there are a number of factors affecting the current weather, and global warming is just one of them.

Other things to take into consideration is the effect that humans have had on the landscape. We try to compare what the weather was 200 years ago to today, and we forget to factor in the sculpting that we have done to the ground and the effect that that alone has on weather. The heat generated from a large city has a direct impact on the weather around it.

The other thing that we have to look at is we have expanded our population geographically so that where once was nothing today is a tornado magnet. The more targets there are to hit, the higher the likelihood. Increase the range of extreme weather, and the probability is higher. It was just a matter of time before a hurricane the size of Katrina landed where it did. Only because humans had decided to build in that place was there a catastrophe like there was. I am sure that over the past few thousand years there have many more hurricanes that landed in the exact same place, but when you build a city on a silt marsh in a hurricane active area, what exactly do you expect to happen. (For a really good book on the founding of New Orleans, I highly recommend Thomas Costain's High Towers)

In the 1920s they used to send wayward women to insane asylums. Today they are most of our news. The rest of the news is weather. The biggest culprit to what is happening and having a direct affect on our immediate weather is the sun. Yessiree kiddies dem kosmic rays is gittin us. We are in a 60 year brightness cycle that will peak in 2012. If you wondered whether the sun seems brighter these days, the answer is yes. And that is why global warming is happening on mars and other planets in our solar system.

The message of Darwin is adapt or die. Raybans and a parka will do me fine. :)
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Hawk
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

Well there ya' go. You just had to go and mention 2012, didn't ya'? :roll:

http://www.viewzone.com/endtime.html

:salute:
Hawk
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

Fascinating article, Hawk - but I know I'm a sucker for conspiracy and disaster theories of all sorts! I agree with Gandar's philosophy, anyway - "I got up and the world was still here, isn't that wonderful ?" - every single day I'm happy to have survived the night.
:-D
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nedfumpkin
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At one point the author of the article mentions that scholars and academics would likely take issue with his presentation of the facts. I would count myself as one of those people. I won't discount his theories completely out of hand because they are just as likely as any other. He does stretch his science considerably.

To say that the Tzolken calandar ends on such and such date is to say that your Gregorian calendar ends every year. Very true technically, but being industrious folks, we just start the same calendar over again. Same thing happens on December 22, 2012....the Tzolken starts over. It runs through 5 times as it calculates the precession of the equinoxes which takes place over 26 thousand or so years....coffee is messed up this morning so I refuse to do math except to generalize with huge margins of error! :)

The whole galactic equator thing actually means something if you are standing on the earth looking up. If you are outside looking in, then it is really irrelevant because it all has to do with imaginary lines. So this alignment only makes sense if you are looking up from here.

To suggest that when the planets are in certain locations at a specific place and time, that the cumulative effects of their motion and gravity will have a profound effect just doesn't make sense except if looked at in black and white with really poor dialogue and costumes. The proximity to the precision of the events on a regular and cyclical basis precludes any possibility of this witchery. Planets line up all the time, and in close enough proximity to spectacularly scheduled events that if there was any concern there would be evidence of at least regularly and cyclical volatility. Remote events of a single and spectacular nature would not support this theory.

That the world has suffered catastrophe in the past is beyond all doubt. It happens on a daily basis, and the only thing that changes is the scale of it. More important to the field of catastrophism is our perception of and response to catastrophe as much as the degree of it. For example, 3000 people died on Sept 11, and since then trillions have been expended on preventing recurrence. A tsunami kills a few hundred thousand people, and we quibble over a few million for advanced warning systems. It just so happens that people will spend their money on the threat that is facing them with the best marketing machinery, not the potential for harm.

Over a hundred thousand earthquakes occur every year. Since I'm not doing math this morning, you can figure out how many per day that is. A lot. And a lot of those earthquakes are quite severe but since they happen in remote places, the damage is minimal. Remember, the focus is always based on the formula of total volume of stuff that gets broken times availability of high quality aerial photography times images of human suffering times political value times what real news is required to be suppressed.

But, having said all that I do have be clearly state that I am without doubt in my mind that global catastrophe has occurred in the past, and will again happen in the future. It is the nature of our planet and our existence. The evidence out there strongly suggests that we are on at least our second time around.

To be continued...
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nedfumpkin
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Anticipatory note: I'm in the middle of something very complicated in the real world so my head is jammed with stuff. I'm not double checking dates and facts, so a few will likely be off to some degree. I'm writing entirely from memory.

Returning back to the Tzolken calendar for a minute, we have to remember that although its day one is 3114 BC, it was not created on that day, rather it just goes back that far. Again, it cycles through 5 times as it calculates the precession of the equinoxes. This information was necessary because agricultural societies relied heavily on getting their planting and harvesting right. A screw-up could mean the demise of the entire population, and it is probably why we see the more advanced civilizations with complex calendars. Those who didn't have a good calendar were not able to prosper enough to make a mark on history.

Up until the 8th century BC, it appears that a 360 day calendar was being used. It had 12 months of thirty days. Then suddenly and abruptly civilizations all over the world switched to 365 day calendars. I am not one to buy into the 100th monkey theory on astronomy or math issues. There is evidence in the caves of Lascaux that humans were tracking the celestial tapestry 15,000 years ago. So the likelihood the separate and remote peoples suddenly had epiphanies that their fundamental principles were wrong is not logical. In order to effect this change in an almost imperceptible manner is to change the speed at which the earth revolves around the sun from 30.something km/second to 29.something km/s which is what it is now. The possible causes of the earth being slowed in its revolution are endless. It is a significant speed change in one sense, but almost nothing in another sense.

But if we go back a few years to the time when the Tzolken calendar begins, 3114 BC, we also see that this coincides with the general time period 3100-3150 BC and the building of the pyramids, Stonehenge, and the megalith monuments in Malta, and a bunch of other stuff. Recently discovered has been evidence that at some time around 3150 BC, an asteroid, or series of asteroids impacted the earth in the area of the Mediteranean and Middle East.

So without knowing the precise dates of things because scientific dating methods are only good for a general guide, it is quite apparent from history and changes that took place that something significant happened during that time period. Only the 20th century AD had as much progress in civilization.

In December 2005, an amateur astronomer in Finland discovered evidence of a long period comet with an approximate 4000 year orbit. Based on his calculations, there was no evidence that it was on a track with colliding with the earth. But when it did go by, it wreaked havoc in the solar system as it went by. Interestingly enough, the ancient Sumerians and a few other cultures have suggested this through legend. Velikovsky never considered it, but then he got a lot of stuff right as well as wrong. Velikovsky was also a psychiatrist before an astronomer.

Now the legend of Stonehenge has a few problems. First, it predates the Druids and Celts so they had nothing to do with it. The alignments that are suggested are almost in need of forcing. just not quite right. Also, a lot has been moved and missing. Using a 360 day calendar and things start falling into new places.

Human being are two things that define our industriousness: greedy and practical. All of our inventions, be it our culture, our selves or our stuff can be traced directly back to either being for greed or a practical reason. So the appearance of these monuments, or markers around the same time would lend more to being practical than greedy. I'm mean really, if you are concerned about your manhood, you get a red convertible and a dippy actress - you don't build the biggest freaking structure that empties your treasury and makes you use millions of manhours over a long period to accomplish. If on the other hand you are concerned about the survival of your civilization in the face of a recurring catastrophe, you build the most solid structure, a pyramid, and you have a basement beneath to store all your crap. You align your monuments to point in the direction to look for the return of that catastrophe. Kinda .."What the hell was that? And when is it coming back?"

So what if we take these monuments and reconsider them with computer model where we have a 360 day year? Pehaps we will discover that they tell us when and where to look for the return of the "Destroyer." Because if we look back to a period before that, about 7000BC, we find that there is deeper evidence to suggest that the earth was once before smacked as if the red convertible skidded some gravel at us. This would coincide with the legend of Atlantis, as well as the Sphynx having been exposed to water erosion. If I am not mistaken, there appears to be bottlenecks in the DNA pool that can be dated back this far to suggest that there was a period of serious depopulation.

Now looking forward, we can speculate that some time in the next four hundred years, a long period comet will traverse our solar system. We do not know its precise mass, however, it is of sufficient mass that is carries a trail of debris in its wake. As it passes near us, the debris leaves scars on our planet, as well as the other planets. Since objects in the solar system don't follow precise tracts in their orbits, it is always a calculation to narrow down where exactly they are going. Lot's of things affect this, so it depends on where it is on its pass as to how much damage we suffer.

Hollywood movies of late focused on the single planet killer with a bull's eye on earth. This is in fact what happened to Mars. If you look at Mars it appears like an orange with half the peel taken off. Directly opposite this stripped side is a giant crater suggesting that Mars got seriously smacked and it blew the crust off have the planet. The asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter is a lot of this.

But that scenario on earth is unlikely. It is possible, and probable at some point but not the most serious of our worries. Most of the really big chunks of rock are stable in their locations and orbits, and it is only a bumper cars situation that would send it our way. Then it is like shooting a missile in motion with a bullet. The chances of hitting are to remote that it is chance that determines the outcome. The smaller the crap, the more likely it will impact the earth, and we see this with meteor showers all the time. We're getting sandblasted continually, but only a few rocks really hit us.

more..
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nedfumpkin
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

But a comet is unpredictable. Shoemaker-Levy, and others since, showed us that we really have to be concerned about them, and their may be some reason why the ancients considered them prophets of doom. It turns out that comets don't keep going endlessly, instead the break apart, crash, all kinds of things. They also have much more crap in and around them than we suspected.

One of the misconceptions that came about from the movies is the amount of warning we would get of an impact. An asteroid is dark and barely reflects any light. If an asteroid were headed towards us in the direction of the opposite of the sun then we could reasonably expect 8 - 10 hours of notice before it impacted us. If it was coming in the direction of the sun then we would not ever see it before it hit our atmosphere. The asteroids that are being tracked are always discovered after they have passed us, not before. The hope of the observers is to identify future risks based on what hasn't killed us yet.

A comet out-gases so we get to see their coronas. We don't actually get to see what they are trailing them but evidence has shown that they leave their dirt behind. A comet would offer a distance warning, but if not on an impact course, then there would only be fear and expectation of any debris hitting the earth.

Basically what we can expect, based on the historical record, is a bombardment of our atmosphere with gravel, sand, stones and ice, and mixtures thereof. The stars will fall from the sky. Heat generated by the multiple explosions will cause fire to rain from the sky, and open breaches in the atmosphere to allow the earth to be pelted. Gravity, friction, and static discharge will affect the poles, and geo-magnetic field. Everything depends on where it is on its track.

Generally there will be some serious destruction all over the place. The more advance we are, the more severely we would be affected. A Bushman in africa has a better chance of surviving a total catastrophe than a someone in a boardroom. Within one year the entire population will be reduced to somewhere between 2 and 10 percent. Stocking up on canned goods will not be nearly as useful as learning to forge iron. Within three generations, more than 90 percent of current knowledge will be lost. We will start over again, and in a few years, the comet returns on its way back out into the depths of space, and we have a minor effect to make sure that what was missed the first time gets nailed the second.

In essence, all of out ancient mythology has stories of some degree to suggest some variation on this theory, and the fossil record does not preclude it. There are some who have seen in the glyphs of Egypt and Meso-America evidence of aliens in the spacemen carvings and such. More likely they are memories of a time before.
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

Hawk, that was a good read.

Anyone want to invest in an old hard rock mine or railroad tunnel?

We could put wires down an air vent from a retrackable windmill in a cement bunker to generate electricy for a food freezer and cooking center. We could divide the extra space into individual units for like minded people. In the center we could set up a train room for reading, gaming and modeling. Then hunker down for a few years until things improve.
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Hawk
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

Ned - I guess I misunderstood what that article was saying. I was under the impression that it would be the gravitational pull of the planets, sun, and the Milky Way that would cause some sort of speculative catastrophe to the earth - not falling objects (meteors, comets, large space dust, etc.) from the sky.
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nedfumpkin
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No Hawk, you're right about your interpretation, I was just positing that there is no scientific basis for all of that. It's mostly based on magical thinking. Astronomical conjunctions happen very frequently, and it seems like every time there is a major conjunction some group goes on to prophesy the end of the world. It never happens because the gravitational pull of the other planets is essentially constant. Sure the planets move, but within a very limited area in comparison. So the tugs from all the other planets change to a degree depending on the particular configuration, but over time it averages out as a constant because a few degrees here and there will not have a significant impact to a degree of affecting what happens on our planet.

Part of the problem is that the Tzolken calendar, and the celestial alignment are misrepresented when there is discussion with other planetary conjunctions. They are two entirely different animals. With planetary conjunctions, we are talking about a number of planets on a relatively flat plane and their positions as the are plotted. The assumption is that if all the planets are on one side....level...in line, the tug on the earth from their gravity will cause the substance of the earth to be altered.

When we design a combination lock, we design it so that all of the components must be precisely aligned before the spring will be released. Same principles apply to chinese puzzles. But those things are designed that way, but the solar system is not. Instead is it a series of planets who have long past the era when alignments or conjunctions would have any impact on the regular operation of the solar machine. The burrs have been filed down as it were. Instead our solar system operates like a creaky old machine in a relatively stable manner.

The alignment that is discussed regarding December 21, 2012, is an entirely different type of alignment. This is an imaginary alignment. Our fertile imaginations would have a reading all kinds of thing into the "signs" but that is pretty much what religion is about.

On December 21, 2012, the imaginary line that we have drawn as the path that is followed by the sun, if we see it as a plane, perpendicular to the pole axis, will be at a particular tilt in relation to the sun. Now this imaginary line will be perfectly aligned with another imaginary line that we have drawn on the tapestry that is the backdrop in the sky. This imaginary line is what we consider the center of the milky way. This particular alignment happens once every 26.500 or so years. It is called the precession of the equinoxes.

So if we were to say that the swing in this alignment happens over 13,000 years, then the amount of movement per year is almost imperceptible. The actual measurable distance that will be changed between now and December 21, 2012, is not such that if there was any possibility that something would happen, then it would be happening now. This is just hocus pocus for the masses.

What it ends up coming down to is the positioning of the stars and the planets as the relate to events has always been the subject of superstition and speculation. Since religion can't make money out of history, we get mythology instead. Rather than looking at the astronomy in historical records are a means of documenting and dating events, we look at them as being the cause of the events. This is magical thinking.

When we look at the birth of Christ, we hear all kinds of theories that it was a space ship, supernova, comet, all kinds of things. Basically it was a conjunction of planets that occurred around 6 BC. It was first visible in May for a few weeks, and later again in the last week of September, first week of October. (the real Christmas).

But here is the thing. We can identify the star that is mentioned in Luke, but we cannot establish whether this connection to Christ is retroactively applied. This is where mythology and faith comes in. One thing we can establish is that the conjunction of two planets did not cause the birth of Christ. We all know that people will say pretty much anything to get others to believe them.

I guess the point I was trying to make is that all of the crap out there is pretty much true to some degree, but it is presented as magic rather than science, and the science and history is much more fascinating. The Bible is a family history where a lot of the events have been proven through archaeology to be mostly true. Other civilizations have similar records that can be proven mostly true.

The same applies to most prophesies, they are mostly true, but not in a magical sense, they are mostly true in a scientific sense. Matthew 24 pretty much describes what I did too.
Gandar
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

I feel that you people are not treating this matter seriously, I have done some research via the trusty internet and I have found the following site to be very useful
http://www.randi.org/encyclopedia/appendix3.html
Prophets proclaiming doom are nothing new, but there is no smoke without fire, so I truly believe that one day the earth and all life on it will end. On the other hand the way the stock market and the price of oil are going I think it might be wise to only invest in the short term just to play it safe.
I got up and the world was still here, isn't that wonderful ?
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Hawk
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

Gandar wrote:I feel that you people are not treating this matter seriously,
Quite the contrary Gander. I have a lot of interest in this topic.
My interest is in the affect on the platonic plates if a gravitational shift were to happen.

I believe in God and Jesus, but I do find myself attracted to the planet(s) and it's life-style. Granted, my knowledge of all this scientific stuff is vastly limited, but it still draws me.
The earth is an ever changing hunk of pretty hot iron (and other stuff) and it's life fascinates me.
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ostlandr
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

Been through the "end of the world" two or three times now. It's always pretty much the same. ;-)
Watch this space for Equus Ferrius Corporation's website! Soon to build biomass fueled steam locomotives, and lease a short line. We're going for it!
Gandar
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

My point of view nowadays is to experience and enjoy every single hour of every day. It is worthwhile to try and do something about things you can affect, but a total waste of valuable time and energy to worry about the end of the world. If you worry about such things too much, you may find yourself distracted at the wrong time and walk in front of a truck and then behold ! the end of the world will have happened after all.
I got up and the world was still here, isn't that wonderful ?
Gwizz
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Re: Weather Report Unread post

Gandar, I agree.

The Earth has been here for a long while without any help from us.
I may joke about it but my plans are to continue on without worrying about the world coming to an end. There is nothing I can do to stop it.

That link that Hawk put up was interesting. Just using common sense says it is something that could be possible. It was well presented. With everything being is some kind of balanced, I doubt it would take much to unbalance the whole process. I'm sure there are many ideas, on what a cause and effect might be.

I do understand cause and effect.
The moon is held in place by the earth.
The earth as a result is affected. Tides, etc.
The Earth is held in place by the Sun.
The Sun is affected, all together by all of its planets. Sun Spots, etc.
The Sun is held in place by a small Galaxy
That in turn is being pulled into and absorbed by the bigger Milky Way Galaxy.

On the big scale of things it does seem scary.
Because cosmic affects are on a long curve, coming and going away, we have time to adjust unless something sneaks up on us, which is very vary rare. I'm more worried about avoiding an automobile accident. Is it possible for something to slam into the Earth? Sure, but I'm still more afraid of how other people drive their cars.

Those underground bunkers being built are nothing new.
people have been preparing for war, a catastrophe and even the end of the world for a long time. I'm still more worried by those other drivers.
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